Import and export trade is gradually picking up

Some people consider digging out companies that have been growing in terms of export performance since the country proposed the inner circle and outer circle.

The idea is correct, but I think the logic of trend investment is not complete.

First of all, the epidemic hit the supply chain, resumed production, and increased production costs that year, at least three quarters. This cost can be estimated by the increase in workers' wages after the holiday.

In addition, the inflationary pressure caused by the large-scale release of water has been suppressed in the lack of liquidity, economic recovery, the arrival of extensive credit, asset prices are re-evaluated, and raw material prices rise. In fact, the bulk price rose in June, and I think it will continue for a year.

Therefore, the increase in upstream costs is very objective, how to pass on the pressure? Is the upstream price increase an opportunity to increase its gross profit margin? The course edge is useless. At this time, pricing power is the basis of company performance. This is one of them.

Second, the exchange rate has eaten up most of the increase in net profit.

Companies related to import and export must perform lock-in operations. That is to say, sign a currency contract with the central bank.

However, the pressure on the appreciation of the renminbi is long-term, and the central bank expects that the pressure within 6 months of this year will be released.

The renminbi has broken through the barrier, and the Central Mother finally took measures to reduce the reserve to zero. Obviously, the central bank has a higher long-term exchange rate target, and traffic jams are not alienated, and proper pressure reduction is needed. I think the measures taken after that will not be violent, and the guarantee will rise slowly, so as not to harm the growth trend of import and export trade.

Under this circumstance, I think that the annual import and export dividend will eat most of the exchange rate. Except for companies with strong pricing power, other companies maintain net profits higher than last year. The income of the graph is very beautiful, and this year is rarely shown as net profit.

For the above two points, the evaluation value of the recovery of external circulation is not expected to rebound this year.

For example, aviation and toys lack typical pricing power, foreign exchange share is high, personnel recall costs are high, and the performance of November is soaring. Even if the second half of the year is stable, it is difficult to make real money. The full rebound of valuation will wait until next year.

Of course, if companies with real pricing power return to value investing, what trend will you do?

I think the RMB has two stages. One is the autonomous rise stage, and the other is the passive rise stage of the dollar plummeting 22 years later. Companies that are highly dependent on imports and exports will take time to complete their competitiveness upgrades within the grace period given to everyone by the Central Mother. After this reshuffle, these industries will become overseas revenue giants.